The demographic transition in high income countries
The earliest demographic transitions occurred in Western and Northern Europe, and overseas English speaking countries, in the late 18th and early 19th century.
Stage 1: Pre-transition
Although there were variations in the exact levels of mortality and fertility, pre-transitional Europe was characterised in general by high and fluctuating mortality, and moderately high fertility.
- Life expectancy ranged between 25 and 40 years, and experienced large fluctuations in relatively short periods of time.
- Population size was often reduced by "mortality crises", caused by outbreaks of plague or other infectious disease. On a local scale, crop failure and famine played a role.
- Total fertility rates were moderately high, ranging between 4 and just under 6 children per woman on average.
- Fertility rates were determined largely by age at marriage and proportion of the population remaining celibate. These in turn were influenced by real wages, as higher wages meant couples could afford to marry and form a household earlier than when wages were low.
- Population growth was slow, due to high mortality and moderate fertility.