Parametric models of fertility (cont.)
The UN model schedule
One of the earliest, and certainly the simplest, fertility model is that produced in 1956 by the United Nations (United Nations 1956). It is an empirical model, based on the average shape of fertility distributions in 52 countries, 15 with comparatively high fertility (although the country with the highest fertility had a TFR of just over 5 children per woman), and 37 with relatively low fertility. With the possible exception of data
from two Spanish protectorates in North Africa (Ceuta and Melilla), the only data from Africa were from colonial immigrant populations, while data from only three Latin American countries were included. This schedule is therefore barely representative of developing country fertility patterns. The fertility schedules are presented in the figure below.
Model age-specific fertility rates according to the UN 1956 model schedule
