PAPP103 - S04: Population projections (II): uses and accuracy of forecasts

Aims and objectives

Aim

This session explains the varying types of output needed by users of projections and discusses the nature and measurement of errors in the outputs from forecasts and the factors responsible for them.

Objectives

At the end of this session, you should be able to:

• Identify the type of outputs required by different users of population projections
• Explain the trade-offs in accuracy that exist between different types of output
• Assess the sensitivity of projection outputs to errors in the assumptions made about vital rates and other factors
• Calculate and interpret common measures for the quantification of errors and accuracy in forecasts
• Assess the likely scale of errors in a forecast based on knowledge of the errors in previous projections of the future population.

This session will take approximately 2.5 hours to complete.