Uses of projections (cont.)
UK Office for National Statistics
FAQ: Why are the projections produced?
The main purpose of producing population projections is to provide an estimate of the future population as a common framework for use in planning, policy formation and decision making in a number of different fields. Uses of projections include, but are not limited to:
- All projections are used in producing household projections
- National population projections (NPP) are a key input to the Office for Budget Responsibility long-term fiscal projections published in the fiscal sustainability report
- NPP are used to produce forecasts of expenditure for benefits and pensions and as a key input for analysis on policy areas such as extending working lives
- NPP are used as the basis for Department for Education projections of future school pupil numbers
- NPP provide the base for other products such as subnational projections (SNPP) and marital status projections
- SNPP inform the allocation of resources from central government to local areas
- SNPP are used in healthcare, education and emergency service provision
- SNPP are used to inform business development (including construction of new developments) and other local area planning
- Marital status projections are used by the Department for Work and Pensions to cost various aspects of the future social security programme
- Academic research
- Market research
Source: ONS, under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.
The users of population projections that many people think of first are government departments responsible for policy and planning in different sectors. While their titles will differ somewhat between countries, they include the main spending departments responsible for education, health and care, housing, transport infrastructure, pensions, and so on. If a country has a central Ministry of Planning, population forecasts will undoubtedly form a central input into its activities. Moreover, insofar as a government has explicit population policies, such as promoting reductions in fertility or encouraging or restricting immigration, the departments responsible for implementing these policies will have a particular interest in population forecasts. In fact, it is likely that nearly every government department, with perhaps the exception of the ministry of foreign affairs, will make use of population forecasts in its activities.
In many countries, responsibility for service provision in a wide range of sectors, such as health, education, housing and so on, is devolved to regional or local authorities. As a result, not only national government, but the regional and local tiers of government are likely to use population forecasts to help them plan ahead for the provision of services. Moreover, projections are not only used to inform planning in the public sector but also underpin planning and marketing strategies in the private sector. For example, at a strategic level, medium-term changes in the structure and distribution of the population such as population ageing may signify the future rise and decline of particular markets. Equally, small-area forecasts might play a role in decisions made by retail firms about where to open new stores.
Population forecasts are also important for the work of a range of international organizations, including United Nations agencies and the development banks. Estimates of future population trends are a crucial input into models of global environmental change and its impact.