Readings

In addition, to the papers cited explicitly, the volumes edited by Bongaarts and Bulatao (2000) and Lutz et al. (1998) contain several papers relevant to matters covered in this session.

Abel, G. J., Bijak J., and Raymer J. (2010). A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales, Population Trends 141: 95-114. Available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/population-trends-rd/population-trends/no--141--autumn-2010/a-comparison-of-official-population-projections.pdf External link

Bongaarts, J. and Bulatao R. A., eds. (2000). Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World Population Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Available http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9828.html External link

Field, J. L. (1990) Past projections: how successful?, in Population Projections: Trends, Methods and Uses, Liverpool, 12-14 September 1990. Occasional Paper 38. Office for Population Censuses and Surveys, pp. 23-29.

Keilman, N. (2001). Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95, Population Studies 55(2): 149-164. doi:10.1080/00324720127686 External link

Keilman, N. (2007). UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries? Population Trends 129: 20-30. Available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/population-trends-rd/population-trends/no--129--autumn-2007/uk-national-population-projections-in-perspective--how-successful-compared-to-those-in-other-european-countries-.pdf External link

Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting, Population and Development Review 7(4): 597-593.

Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W. & Ahlburg, D. A., eds. (1998). Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Supplement to Population and Development Review, vol. 24. New York: The Population Council.

Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P. and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography. Measuring and Modelling Population Processes. (Chapter 6). Oxford: Blackwell.

Shaw, C. (2007). Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been? Population Trends 128: 8-23. Available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/population-trends-rd/population-trends/no--128--summer-2007/fifty-years-of-united-kingdom-national-population-projections--how-accurate-have-they-been-.pdf External link

UN Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Available at: http://esa.un.org/wpp/index.htm External link