Introduction (cont.)
The best real world example of population momentum comes from China. Following a state supported and stringent birth control program, the TFR declined from above 6 to below replacement during the second half of the 20th century. Whereas this would still not qualify as an instantaneous fertility decline, it is one of the most drastic fertility reductions on record. Despite these remarkable reductions in fertility, however, the population is expected to grow until 2025-30, when the population would top around 1.4 billion.
Figure 1: Total Population and Average Number of Children per Woman in China, 1950-2100
Data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/313