PAPP103 - S05: Population projections (III): sub-national projections and forecasting vital rates

Aims and objectives

Aims

This session introduces methods for forecasting the vital rates as an input to cohort-component projections and the extension of the method to the projection of sub-national populations.

Objectives

At the end of this session, you should be able to:

• Explain the main approaches used to produce projections for sub-national areas and sub-groups of a population
• Interpret and apply the principles and methods used to forecast vital rates
• Assess the methods used to forecast vital rates for official national projections in Britain and for the United Nations 'World Population Prospects'
• Use relational models for forecasting.

This session will take approximately 2.5 hours to complete.